经济学人：委内瑞拉遭遇126年来最强地震

It took just 39 seconds to cause enormous wreckage in Venezuela. On the evening of June 24th two powerful earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.2, struck almost simultaneously in its north. Over 100 buildings collapsed in the port city of La Guaira. Dozens more fell in Caracas, the capital. At least 30 aftershocks followed. By early afternoon in Caracas on June 25th the authorities had confirmed at least 188 deaths and more than 1,500 injuries. The toll is likely to prove much worse. One estimate by America's Geological survey suggests it could surpass 10,000 dead, though that may not take account of the fact that many Venezuelans long ago fled the country. The same estimate offered speculation that economic losses could amount to some 1-7% of GDP, although the long-term costs of natural disasters are difficult to parse.

短短39秒，委内瑞拉境内便遭遇严重损毁。6月24日晚间，两场震级分别达7.5级、7.2级的强震几乎同时袭击该国北部。港口城市拉瓜伊拉超百栋建筑坍塌，首都加拉加斯也有数十栋房屋损毁。此后又发生至少30次余震。截至6月25日加拉加斯午后，官方已确认至少188人遇难、1500余人受伤，伤亡数字大概率还会持续攀升。美国地质调查局预估遇难人数或突破万人，但该测算并未计入大批早已逃离本国的委内瑞拉民众。同一机构预测，本次地震造成的经济损失或占国内生产总值的1%至7%，不过自然灾害带来的长期经济损耗难以精准核算。

Since the capture by American forces of former president Nicolas Maduro in January, Venezuela has been ruled by his former deputy, Delcy Rodriguez, under the watchful eye of Donald Trump. Ms Rodriguez is only beginning to reboot the economy, which was devastated by two decades of corruption and mismanagement. Public services are in shambles. Hospitals lack equipment and medication. transport and energy infrastructure is crumbling. power outages are common and—with 8m Venezuelans having left the country since 2014—few doctors and engineers remain.

今年1月美军抓获前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，委内瑞拉由其副手德尔西·罗德里格斯接管政权，全程处于唐纳德·特朗普的密切监视之下。罗德里格斯才刚着手重振经济，该国二十年的贪腐与治理失当早已将经济彻底拖垮。公共服务体系全面瘫痪，医院设备、药品紧缺，交通与能源基础设施破败不堪，停电已成常态；自2014年起已有800万委内瑞拉人出走海外，国内留存的医生、工程师寥寥无几。

The full scale of the damage remains unclear, yet it is undoubtedly historic. Venezuela suffers regular earthquakes—a double tremor last year wounded over 100 people—but this is the largest quake in over a century. It may also be the deadliest. The San Narciso shock in 1900 was bigger, tearing fissures into the ground and triggering a tsunami from the sea. But at the time most people lived in low adobe dwellings scattered across isolated communities, so it killed only 140 people. modern Venezuela has sprawling metropolises dotted with skyscrapers，这些楼宇均建成于2000年代石油繁荣期。许多贫困街区的住宅采用质地脆弱的土坯（泥土混稻草）搭建。近八成民众居住在地震高风险区域。

目前灾情完整损失规模尚不明朗，但此次地震无疑是历史性重大灾害。委内瑞拉本就地震频发，去年一场双震就造成百余人受伤，而本次地震是该国百余年以来最强震，也极有可能是致死人数最多的一次。1900年圣纳西索地震震级更高，当时地面撕裂出巨大裂缝，还引发了海啸。但彼时民众大多居住在分散村落的低矮土坯房内，最终仅140人遇难。如今委内瑞拉大城市遍布2000年代石油繁荣时期修建的摩天大楼，大量贫民区房屋由泥土混合稻草制成的脆弱土坯搭建，近80%人口身处地震高风险地带。

Ms Rodriguez has declared a state of emergency and put the armed forces in charge of search and rescue. Army engineers are stabilising bridges and medics are setting up treatment centres. Civilian Venezuelan teams of rescuers have been sent to La Guaira on the Caribbean coast, which bore far heavier damage than Caracas. Communications from the地区中断严重，停电、移动通信基站损毁导致当地消息难以向外传递。地震发生后，全国互联网接入率一度暴跌至59%。网络恢复后，民众纷纷涌向社交媒体，打探失联亲人的下落。政府已悄悄解除长期封禁，开放包括X平台在内的多款境外网站。

罗德里格斯已宣布全国进入紧急状态，指派武装部队全权负责搜救工作。陆军工程师抢修加固桥梁，医护人员搭建临时救治点。委内瑞拉民间救援队已奔赴加勒比沿岸的拉瓜伊拉，该地受灾程度远超加拉加斯。当地通讯严重受阻，停电与损毁的信号塔让外界难以获取一线灾情；地震后全国网络连通率一度跌至59%。网络恢复后，民众扎堆使用社交媒体寻找失联亲属，政府也悄然取消多年禁令，放开了包含X在内的多款境外平台访问权限。

The feebleness of the state is painfully visible. The UN's main humanitarian arm (known by its acronym, OCHA) is directing international search and rescue teams to land at La Carlota air base in Caracas, because the damaged international airport remains closed. security forces in La Guaira are reportedly appealing to当地居民捐赠饮用水与口罩。救援人员清理废墟时甚至缺少基础工具。“我们找不到凿子、电钻、角磨机，只能徒手刨挖瓦砾，”一名当地民众向路透社记者表示。

国家治理体系的孱弱暴露无遗。联合国人道主义事务协调厅（简称人道协调厅OCHA）安排国际搜救队伍降落在加拉加斯拉卡洛塔空军基地，因受损的国际机场至今无法启用。据消息，拉瓜伊拉安保部队只能向当地民众征集饮用水、口罩。救援人员清理废墟全无专业工具。一名男子对路透社说：“没有凿子、电钻、打磨机，大家只能徒手扒开碎石。”

International aid will be crucial for rescue efforts. A number of Latin American and European governments have pledged humanitarian assistance and救援物资。罗德里格斯称国际货币基金组织已承诺提供2亿美元用于基础设施重建。委内瑞拉现阶段极度依赖美方援助，特朗普政府也已表态愿意伸出援手。“美国随时准备、有能力提供一切帮助。”特朗普公开表态。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥补充，美方将提供航拍影像、救援物资与专业搜救队伍。

国际援助对救援工作至关重要。多个拉美、欧洲国家政府承诺提供人道主义支援与救灾物资。罗德里格斯透露，国际货币基金组织已划拨2亿美元专项资金用于基础设施修复重建。委内瑞拉当下格外寄望美国支援，特朗普也释放出愿意援助的信号：“美国已做好准备，愿意且有能力施以援手。”国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥表示，美方将提供航拍灾情影像、救灾物资以及专业搜救队伍。

America's leaders will be relieved that the country's oil sector escaped severe harm. Western oil、天然气田与南部矿业枢纽均未受波及。该国第二大石化综合厂区莫龙石化基地短暂停工后，已恢复生产。对罗德里格斯而言，这场灾难或许是一次政治转机。普通民众大多仍对其政府不满，多数人期盼流亡反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多归国。倘若罗德里格斯能在灾难处置中展现高效治理能力，民众对她的观感或将改观；及时投放救灾物资，也能满足数万受灾民众的迫切需求。但一旦政府救援行动迟缓、处置不力，民众的不满情绪或将彻底爆发。

美国高层颇为欣慰的是，委内瑞拉石油产业未遭受重创。西部油气田、南部矿业中心均安然无恙，全国第二大莫龙石化综合体短暂停产之后已恢复运营。这场危机对罗德里格斯而言或许是一次政治契机。本国普通民众普遍反感现政府，大部分人都希望流亡海外的反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多回国。若罗德里格斯能在灾难中展现高效执政能力，公众对她的评价有望好转；及时发放救灾物资，也能安抚数万受灾民众。可一旦政府行动拖沓、救灾处置失当，民众积压的怒火或将全面爆发。